WASHINGTON, D.C. - Despite voter surveys showing a close presidential race,
Illinois Senator Barack Obama continues to enjoy a clear advantage in gathering the
electoral votes he will need to win election in November, according to a convention guide that will be distributed next week to delegates and press at the
Democratic Convention by the
Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies (Joint Center).
"Demographic and political changes, along with the Obama campaign's grassroots and internet organizing, are likely to change the electoral map" from 2004 to 2008, says Blacks and the 2008 Democratic Convention. The publication was released today by the Joint Center, a non-partisan research institution that focuses on the issues of concern to African Americans and other people of color.
Noting that several key states - including Indiana, Ohio and Virginia - that were won by President Bush four years ago have sizeable African American populations, the Joint Center predicts that black turnout will be integral in the determination the election outcome. "Judging by black participation in 2008 Democratic presidential primaries - during which black turnout increased by 115 percent - the Democrats' prospects look exceptionally good," the guide says.
The Joint Center has prepared similar volumes for both the Republican and Democratic conventions every four years since 1972. Written by the organization's Senior Political Analyst Associate, David A. Bositis, they are intended to help African American convention participants carry out their responsibilities and to inform political analysis and partisan activities, as well as to enhance understanding of trends among black voters. The guide includes an insert, prepared by the Joint Center 's Health Policy Institute, comparing the health care reform plans of the two major party candidates.
"The Democratic Party's nomination of Senator Obama will be an historic moment for our nation and for the advancement of African Americans in our political system - something that has long been a key objective of our organization," said Ralph B. Everett, President and CEO of the Joint Center. "By synthesizing the Joint Center 's exhaustive research on black voter attitudes and voting patterns, this guide is intended to help convention delegates understand the potential impact of the African American vote in the upcoming election."
The guide notes that African American participation at this year's Democratic National Convention will be at an all-time high, with 1,079 African American delegates representing 24.3 percent of the total.
The Joint Center will release its companion volume for delegates to the 2008 Republican National Convention on the eve of that event.
